IPAT(D)
Population
# no change
No change from 2015
# ssp1 population
Low fertility in current low and medium income countries, medium fertility in current rich OECD countries
# ssp2 population
Medium fertility in all countries
# ssp3 population
High fertility in current low and medium income countries, low fertility in current rich OECD countries
# ssp4 population
High fertility in current low income countries, low fertility in current rich countries and medium in rich OECD countries
# ssp5 population
Low fertility in current low and medium income countries, high fertility in current rich OECD countries
# low fertility
Low fertility, immediately fall to < 1.5 birth per woman in all countries
Affluence
# no change
No change from 2015, constant in each region on the level of 2015
# economic crisis
Crisis until 2050, stronger in high income countries, and then slow recover
# equality
All regions reach by 2100 the level of USA in 2015
# catching up
Continuing historic growth rates until 2050, after 2050 the current low income countries catch up with current high income countries
# shifting power
Low economic growth in current high income countries and high growth in current low income countries
# ssp1 affluence
High growth in current low and medium income countries, medium growth in current high income countries
# ssp2 affluence
Medium economic growth in all countries
# ssp3 affluence
Low economic growth in all countries
# ssp4 affluence
Low economic growth in current low income countries, medium growth in other
# ssp5 affluence
High economic growth in all countries
Technology
# business as usual
No policies or targets implemented, competitive markets secure global cost minimized solution
# strong tech dev
90% non-fossil power, 50% non-fossil primary energy in 2050. More than 90% non-fossil primary energy in 2100
# radical tech dev
100% non-fossil power, 85% non-fossil primary energy in 2050. 95% non-fossil primary energy in 2100
Diet
# usa diet
USA or EU diet in all countries, transition over 20 years
# ind diet
Indian diet in all countries, transition over 20 years
# no change
No change from today
With this tool, you can explore how global developments in population, affluence, technology and diet will impact the earth as we move towards year 2100. Select scenarios in the menu to the left and see how it impacts the charts below.
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