IPAT(D)
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IPAT(D)
About the tool
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Population
# no change
No change from 2015
# ssp1 population
Low fertility in current low and medium income countries, medium fertility in current rich OECD countries
# ssp2 population
Medium fertility in all countries
# ssp3 population
High fertility in current low and medium income countries, low fertility in current rich OECD countries
# ssp4 population
High fertility in current low income countries, low fertility in current rich countries and medium in rich OECD countries
# ssp5 population
Low fertility in current low and medium income countries, high fertility in current rich OECD countries
# low fertility
Low fertility, immediately fall to < 1.5 birth per woman in all countries
Affluence
# no change
No change from 2015, constant in each region on the level of 2015
# economic crisis
Crisis until 2050, stronger in high income countries, and then slow recover
# equality
All regions reach by 2100 the level of USA in 2015
# catching up
Continuing historic growth rates until 2050, after 2050 the current low income countries catch up with current high income countries
# shifting power
Low economic growth in current high income countries and high growth in current low income countries
# ssp1 affluence
High growth in current low and medium income countries, medium growth in current high income countries
# ssp2 affluence
Medium economic growth in all countries
# ssp3 affluence
Low economic growth in all countries
# ssp4 affluence
Low economic growth in current low income countries, medium growth in other
# ssp5 affluence
High economic growth in all countries
Technology
# business as usual
No policies or targets implemented, competitive markets secure global cost minimized solution
# strong tech dev
90% non-fossil power, 50% non-fossil primary energy in 2050. More than 90% non-fossil primary energy in 2100
# radical tech dev
100% non-fossil power, 85% non-fossil primary energy in 2050. 95% non-fossil primary energy in 2100
Diet
# usa diet
USA or EU diet in all countries, transition over 20 years
# ind diet
Indian diet in all countries, transition over 20 years
# no change
No change from today
Online version by Tokni

About the IPAT(D) tool

Disclaimer

The IPAT(D) is meant to give an illustrative visualization of the impact from population, affluence and technological development on climate and Ecological Footprint.

The model contains a simplified representation of the energy system and of the drivers causing demand for food and energy.

The IPAT(D) should not be used for policy planning as the aggregated nature of the model potentially can leave out important information and relations. What IPAT(D) can be used for, is to highlight that we cannot solve the global environmental problems without looking at population and economic development.

Development

The tool has been developed at System Analysis at the Department of Management Engineering at the Technical University of Denmark.

The inspiration for this tool is a chapter by Jørgen Nørgård in a recent book "Rethinking Climate and the Energy Policies".

The equation I=P*A*T which combines population (P), affluence (A) and technological eco-intensity factor (T), has been known since Ehrlich and Holdren presented it in 1971. This equation aims to show that reducing climate change by means of only reducing T may be incredibly difficult if no measures are taken in the other two factors, i.e. P and A.

In our version we have extrated diet (D) as a seperate impact and therefore the equation I=PAT(D). The ecological impact is represented by CO2 emissions and the global concentration level is translated into mean global temperature increase until 2100. The impacts are tracked on 16 different regions of the world and equality within population growth and affluence can therefore be investigated.

The ecological footprint is also tracked based on data from www.footprintnetwork.org and illustrates how much area is needed to maintain a sustainable production of food and energy to cover the global demand. The result is how many earths are needed with a given level of consumption.

Acknowledgement: We would like to thank the GLOBAL FOOTPRINT NETWORK for providing us with data that made the estimation of the footprint possible. “© Global Footprint Network 2016. National Footprint Accounts, 2016 Edition. Licensed and provided solely for informational purposes. Contact Global Footprint Network at www.footprintnetwork.org to obtain more information.”

Read more and download an Excel version of the tool at the IPAT-D website at DTU.

The online version of the tool is being developed by the software company Tokni.

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